Out of my mind: Elections forever

The government, elected barely 150 days ago, is now facing judgment again in Maharashtra and Haryana. The Maharashtra elections have been directly impacted by the general election outcome. The Shiv Sena never expected the BJP to win so big in May. It was afraid of being swallowed up if it stayed in the coalition. The NCP was worried that the Congress was a loser and that staying in the UPA would sink it. Hence, the twin break-ups.

We now have an unpredictable election. With a four, or even five-sided (the MNS including) contest, vote shares do not easily translate into seat shares. But the shadow of the general election falls so long that the pressure is all on the BJP. It has to repeat its success. The Congress can describe any outcome as a revival.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the sole source for the amazing outcome for the BJP in May. The BJP lacks any one else remotely comparable to him as an election motivator. Amit Shah is a grassroots organiser, not a tub-thumping public speaker. All the rest in Maharashtra lack general appeal. So any outcome will be put at the door of the PM. This will also be so for Haryana.

Not since Indira Gandhi have we had a prime minister who has taken on an all-India responsibility for the ruling party’s fortunes. It is the secret of Modi’s power over his party. But at the same time, it risks distracting him from his duties as PM. After all, people are waiting for the many changes promised. Even as he is ceaselessly making policies and implementing them, it is hard not to miss the impatience of the people. They were promised the Earth and they want it soon. The PM works 17 hours a day and has not had even a 15-minute holiday, he tells us. But it could be that one man’s hard work is not enough.

The BJP’s problem is a severe shortage of capable people at the top. Even after many months, Arun Jaitley is still handling two portfolios, though happily no longer from a hospital bed. There ought to be a proper reshuffle and a complete Cabinet. But the ablest people in the BJP are chief ministers of states and reluctant to come to the Centre.

The age bar at 75 is all very well for the RSS to decree. It does not have to run the government, only comment from the sidelines. The last BJP/NDA government had Yashwant Sinha, Jaswant  Singh, Murli Manohar Joshi and Lal Krishna Advani. These four are hard to replace.

There will, no doubt, be talent coming up from junior positions into the Cabinet. But that takes time. In the meantime, there is the PM with some, but not much, help.

These are early days yet. If the Prime Minister is the only electoral performer in the BJP, then he will have to allocate his time even more stringently than he has done thus far between fighting every election and running the country. This is not impossible, but it is not easy. British prime ministers have political advisers who foresee troubles ahead, who make electoral calculations and deploy
the leader strategically. Modi needs such advisers over and above his team of civil servants. The IAS cannot do politics. Indira Gandhi had a kitchen cabinet. Modi needs one.